when I was where you are, I'd lost 28 lbs (16 lbs the first month,12 lbs the second). I was a slow loser the whole time, but I ended up losing over 200 lbs. Everyone's rate of weight loss is different depending on so many factors (age, gender, starting BMI, metabolic rate, etc). Your commitment to your program is going to have a MUCH greater impact on your eventual success than your rate of weight loss will, though. So just stick to your program, follow the rules, and the weight will come off, either fast or slow.